GS hosted an investor conference call with Doctor Lee, Ambassador for International Security Affairs in the Lee Myung-bak Administration and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Yonsei University. In the call, the expert said that there could be three reasons for the provocation:
1. This could be a tactic to put pressure on the US and South Korea for renewing the Six-Party Talks and to get more economic concessions.
2. North Korea might have wanted to raise tensions in the Korean peninsula to consolidate domestic support for an emerging leadership-for the 27-year-old son of the current leader, who has recently been promoted to a general and ranked as the No 2 in the government.
3. North Korea might have sought to weaken the South Korean government and divide public opinion in South Korea, given the current South Korean government's adherence to UN sanctions against North Korea.
However, the war should be short lived and will not going deeper as in current circumstances (the Korea is facing its challenges from global recession and engaged in the recovery process), there is insufficient capital for government to support a long war even the government able extending its government deficit.
